Well-Written paper on Iraq from an economic perspective.

Our response to 9/11 may have done more to further the interests of our jihadist opponents than our own, in that we have weakened an international system they view as illegitimate and destabilized the Middle East in a manner they now seek to exploit. Afghanistan aside, by attacking Iraq with meager international support, we weakened the fabric of the global order based on a system of states and international consensus. Friends and allies have been uneasy for years regarding the imbalance inherent in America’s comparatively excessive military spending.48 With Iraq, we have shown we too are capable of what some see as foolish aggression. A radical adjustment will be required if we are to regain international confidence. Perception of the inability of the United States to deliver global security (and unwilling to be constrained by international opinion and cooperative arrangements) will erode global confidence, contribute to economic and political instability, and encourage non-state insurgents. Within the Middle East region, our natural allies in this fight are strong, moderate states, even if some of those states espouse views that run counter to our own. To restore vitality to the system we must begin to reconcile with proto-democratic Iran and secular Syria.

The End?

Our own history tells us states are most often forged in the crucible of violence. If we wish to see mature states in the Middle East, we must make way for violence there, reserving the exercise of force and subversion to those instances when vital U.S. interests are truly at stake, which, as U.S. tolerance for higher pump prices show, do not necessarily include oil. The U.S. and its allies apparently succeeded in tamping down one of Huntington’s fault-line wars51 in the Balkans, doing so in a manner that some hoped would appease Muslim discontent. Any such gains now lay in the ashes of an Iraq that, much like the Balkans before, appears to be coming apart. This clash of Islam is internal, reflecting a division within a religion. We have seen something like this in our own history. The bloody battle is on, but it is not ours. Our best hope is to contain and shape the conflict in ways that support the modern states system. Despite the fact states maturing in the Middle East diverge from our conceptual framework, we should avoid undermining upstart republics as the system develops. We have accepted a nuclear-armed religious state wrapped around democratic principles in Israel. We may have to accommodate one in Iran.