My expectation is that he will move in the direction of withdrawal, but with caution. He cannot be sure who the next President will be. It would be very damaging if British troops withdrew in a way that exposed the lines of communication of American soldiers in Iraq. Britain has earned the reputation in the United States of being a loyal ally, and we must retain that. There is also a real duty to give the Iraqis the best possible opportunity to solve their own problems.
The politics may be decisive. Mr Brown wants to win another overall majority for Labour at the next general election; nothing less will do. The accelerated withdrawal of British troops from Iraq would be popular, in proportion to the unpopularity of the war. Even the generals would support it, to reduce the overstrain on the Army.
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